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Canadian property buyers are increasing in volume, led by a recovery in the west. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows that property sales rose sharply in November. All but three of the main markets saw an increase in property sales, half of which saw double-digit growth.

Canadian property sales

Canadian real estate sales are climbing – and quickly. CREA reported 37,213 unadjusted sales in November, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same month in the previous year. Compared to November 2017, this number is 2.31% lower. Not at new highs, but the volume jumped back to record highs.

Canadian property sales

Unadjusted sales for all apartment types, as reported by the Canadian MLS.

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Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Growth has slowed, but the general trend is still looking higher. The 11.3% growth in November is the second consecutive month of slowdown. Two months is not a trend, and growth is still double-digit.

Change in Canadian property sales

The annual percentage of unadjusted sales for all apartment types, as reported by the Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The distortion caused by late demand is worth mentioning. B-20 and foreign buyer taxes delayed many buyers for various reasons, from financing to expectations. Using a 12-month moving average, we can see how this demand is developing. There is growth and things are improving – but the market is not overheated on a national scale.

Canadian property sales every 12 months

The 12-month moving average of Canadian property sales reported by Canadian MLS.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Most analyzes focus on annual comparisons of individual months and seasonal adjustments. In a regular market, these are your best bets. Sudden regulatory changes can delay buyers by several months and distort the analysis. Rolling 12-month averages can help to see this trend more clearly.

British Columbia real estate leads for profits

Real estate markets in British Columbia have seen sales increase after last year’s fiasco. Vancouver had the largest impairment in the country with 2,546 sales in November, an increase of 55.9% over the previous year. Fraser Valley follows with 1,318 sales and an increase of 34.9% in the same period. Halifax came third with 489 sales, an increase of 19% over the previous year. Vancouver and Fraser Valley hit multi-year lows last year, so the massive surge could be misleading. Sales in both regions are still lower than two years ago.

Canadian property sales by market

Canadian property sales in markets with more than 400 sales a month.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Southern Ontario real estate is seeing the biggest drop

The southern Ontario markets of Kitchener and Niagara declined, followed by Edmonton. Kitchener saw its largest decline, with 404 sales in November, 10.6% less than a year earlier. Niagara followed with 436 sales, a decrease of 4.8% over the same period. Edmonton posted the third largest decrease, with 1,202 sales, 3.6% less than the same month last year. All three markets are also below their 2017 level.

Canadian property sales vary by market

The percentage change in Canadian property sales in markets with more than 400 sales per month.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadian property sales are on the rise, but not quite at their peak. The volume recovery is mainly due to the fact that the main markets in British Columbia are returning to normal volumes. Although most of the country’s major markets have also seen sales increase.

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